51 · 预测未来
Predicting the Future
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Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first "home computer" and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an "operating system" called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to "think" for themselves and would "rule the world", which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.
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Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first "home computer" and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an "operating system" called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to "think" for themselves and would "rule the world", which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.
预测未来之难，是出了名的。比如，在20世纪70年代中期，谁能想到，到了世纪末，电脑竟会像电视机一样，普遍走进普通家庭？70年代的电脑已经相当常见，却主要用于大企业、政府部门和大型机构，那就是所谓的大型主机。这些机器体积庞大，往往占据一整间有空调的机房，需要专职技术人员照管，并运行专门编写的软件。如今，这类大机器虽然仍然存在，许多功能却已被体积小、性能强的个人电脑取代，也就是人们常说的PC。
1975年，一种名叫“牛郎星”的简易电脑在美国推出。它堪称第一台“家用电脑”，也指明了未来的发展方向。70年代末，名为“苹果”的电脑随后问世。80年代初，电脑巨头IBM推出了世界上第一台个人计算机，运行一种叫DOS的“操作系统”；编写这个系统的，是当时还很小的一家公司——微软。IBM个人计算机很快被大量仿制。从这些不起眼的起步，我们一路见证了如今普遍使用、操作友好的家用电脑和多媒体电脑的发展。
想想这些发展其实都发生在不久之前，就更能体会一件事有多了不起：早在20世纪60年代，英国人利昂·巴格里特就已经预测到了今天电脑的一些用途。当时，人们爱幻想电脑会学着独立“思考”、进而“统治世界”，巴格里特却不赞同这种看法。他预见到，有一天电脑会小到可以握在手中，能提供堵车信息、建议其他路线；能在医院里帮助医生诊断疾病；还能让办公室职员和会计，摆脱枯燥重复的文书工作。如今，这些用途都已十分常见。当然，巴格里特不可能预见互联网的诞生：电脑接上电话网络，就能借助这个遍布全球的系统，与世界任何角落的人即时沟通。他同样无法预见，我们可以用互联网查找各种已知领域的资料，在家里的屏幕上阅读，甚至按需打印。电脑越来越小、越来越强，也越来越便宜，而这些变化，更显出巴格里特当年预言的不凡。如果他或像他这样的人今天还活着，也许能告诉我们，未来五十年又会发生些什么。
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用 Who could have imagined that… would… 回顾一次出乎意料的发展。
译文依据整理稿，由本站按中文表达重新校订；解析据吴应时、何景霖整理资料及首轮审校稿；词伙与练习提示为本站学习设计。原PDF第180—183页，2022年2月第3版。