--- url: https://gaojian.site/new-concept/book-4/14-the-butterfly-effect.md description: 新概念英语第四册：The Butterfly Effect。精读、词块回忆、双向译练、句法、逻辑与FSRS复习。 --- # 14 · 蝴蝶效应 ### 第1段 Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless. The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather—and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards—any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see. The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03... The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe. 中文理解：即使是世界上最好的天气预报，超过两三天也只能算推测，超过六七天就没有价值了。 原因就在于蝴蝶效应。对局部天气所作的预测，会很快失准；而在负责全球天气预报的人眼里，雷暴和暴风雪也只能算局部现象。误差和不确定性不断增大，沿着一系列湍流现象逐级向更大尺度传递：从小旋风、突发的狂风，一直到只有卫星才能看清的大陆规模的巨大涡旋。 现代天气模型采用的网格，格点间距约为六十英里。即便如此，有些初始数据仍不得不靠估计，因为地面观测站和卫星不可能覆盖每一处。现在不妨假设，整个地球都布满了传感器，水平方向每隔一英尺一个，垂直方向也每隔一英尺一层，一直延伸到大气层顶部。再假设，每个传感器都能完全准确地测出温度、气压、湿度，以及气象学家需要的任何其他物理量。正午十二点，一台算力无限的计算机收集全部数据，计算每个地点在十二点零一分、十二点零二分、十二点零三分会发生什么…… 即便如此，这台计算机仍无法预测一个月后的某一天，新泽西州普林斯顿究竟晴天还是下雨。因为在正午时刻，传感器之间的空隙里仍会存在计算机不知道的微小波动，也就是偏离平均值的细微差异。到十二点零一分，这些波动就已在一英尺的范围内造成小误差。不久，误差会扩大到十英尺的尺度，再不断扩展，直至影响全球。 * **weather forecasts**：天气预报；forecast是预测结果，模型与预测并非同一概念。 * **Errors and uncertainties**：误差和不确定性；误差与未知程度不同，不必合成一个“错误”。 * **cascading upward**：逐级向更大尺度传递；undefined * **a chain of**：一连串相连的；强调前后相接，不是随意的集合。 * **from dust devils**：从小旋风开始；undefined * **of the order of**：大约在……量级；较正式的近似数表达，不是排序命令。 * **even so**：即便如此；承接已经成立的信息，表示结果未如预期。 * **starting data**：初始数据；强调模型起点，不是最终输出。 * **covered with**：布满；undefined * **spaced one foot apart**：每隔一英尺排列；说明间距，不是总长度。 * **accurate readings**：准确读数；reading在这里是仪器读数，不是阅读文章。 * **an infinitely powerful computer**：算力无限的计算机；undefined * **be unable to predict**：无法预测；说明不能完成的任务，范围应具体。 * **one month away**：一个月以后；undefined * **deviations from the average**：偏离平均值的差异；from引出比较基线，不是任意异常标签。 * **up to the size of**：一直达到……的尺度；undefined #### Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless. 并列句，均为主系表结构. 本段是书中一个自然段的最后一句，这段讲的是计算机模拟将天气预报从艺术转为了科学，但预测时长也就几天而已. #### The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather—and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards—any prediction deteriorates rapidly. The Butterfly Effect is the reason 先点明原因，后一句再展开。For small pieces of weather 给讨论范围；主干是 any prediction deteriorates rapidly。 破折号中的插入语把 small 放回全球预报的尺度：连雷雨和暴风雪也算局部天气。不要把 small 理解成风暴强度小。原稿把第二句的编号并入了前条正文，这里合并展示两句，保留解释关系。 #### Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see. 主干是 Errors and uncertainties multiply。cascading…用分词补充误差逐级扩散；from…up to…列出由小到大的天气尺度，that only satellites can see 修饰 eddies。from…up to…不是定语从句。 #### The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. 复合句，全句以 and 分成前后两句，前句为主谓结构，and 后句为主谓结构加一个 since 引导的原因状语从句，为主谓宾结构. 该句中 of the order of 有“大约”之意. #### But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. 这是以 Suppose 开头、邀请读者作设想的祈使句，隐含主语 you，后接表示设想内容的从句。不能由表面未出现主语，推断英语祈使句完全没有主语。 宾语从句为主谓结构. #### Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. 与上句一样，这是隐含主语 you 的祈使句，Suppose 后接设想内容从句。 只不过宾语从句中，包含一个定语从句 a meteorologist would want 修饰 quantity. #### Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03... 复合句，为并列结构，一个主语 computer 跟了两个谓语动词，后一个谓语所跟的为 what 引导的宾语从句，该从句为主谓结构. 课文翻译时漏译了 at each point，在每一个地点. #### The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. 简单句，主系表结构，后面跟了不定式作原因状语，这个状语里面有一个宾语从句作 predict 的宾语，该宾语从句为主谓宾，但本身只不过是状语这个成分里面的一部分，在这里是额外进行了分析. #### The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. 复合句，主句为主谓宾结构，后面是 that 引导的定语从句，为主谓宾结构. #### By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. 简单句，主谓宾结构. #### Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe. 简单句，主谓结构. ## 学完这一课 用一个主句加分词描述某影响逐步扩散的过程。 [Nce · 本册复习台](/new-concept/book-4/review) · [三册选择地图](/new-concept/) *译文依据整理稿，由本站按中文表达重新校订；解析据吴应时整理资料及首轮审校稿；词伙与练习提示为本站学习设计。原PDF第57—59页，2022年2月第2版。*